Even honest liberal political pundits are predicting a big win for Republicans on Nov. 8.
Conservative pundits are predicting a huge win.
Campaign rhetoric aside, 13th District Congressman Ted Budd is projected to win with a comfortable lead. According to the Real Clear Politics poll average, Budd is up by 4.5 percent. But because polls tend to favor Democrats, this year Real Clear Politics has an adjustment that adds or subtracts points from the candidates according to how far off the polls were at the same point in the last couple of elections. In the vast majority of the races, the polls showed the Democratic candidate doing better than they did on Election Day and the Republican candidate doing worse.
Factoring in that adjustment, Real Clear Politics showed Budd up by 9.1 points nine days out from the election.
Even CNN is projecting Budd as the winner and the big national Democratic money is not coming to his opponent Cheri Beasley.
The question for local races is, “Will Budd have coattails in Guilford County?”
In the 6th District, Republican candidate Christian Castelli is up against one-term incumbent Congresswoman Kathy Manning who won easily in 2020, but that was in a different district. The lines for the 6th District were redrawn and it isn’t as heavily Democrat as it was. Manning has a lot more money than Castelli, but if Republicans are fired up enough to get out and vote, Castelli could pull off an upset.
Most of the state House and Senate districts heavily favor one party. But not all of them. Republican state House District 57 candidate Michelle Bardsley, who is running against Democrat incumbent state House Representative Ashton Clemmons, could pull off an upset. The winner in midterm races is often decided by voter turnout and usually the party of the sitting president loses because voters are more fired up to vote against the current policies than they are to continue them.
It has been tough for a Republican to win countywide races in recent years. But if this is the kind of Republican year that is being predicted, Republican sheriff’s candidate Phil Byrd could win over incumbent Democratic Sheriff Danny Rogers.
In a presidential election year, the odds of Republican At-large Guilford County commissioner candidate Jerry Alan Branson defeating Democrat At-large Guilford County Commissioner Kay Cashion would be slim. But this is a midterm election where nationwide Republicans are projected to do well races that a few months ago nobody thought they had a chance.
In the at-large Guilford County Board of Education race, the odds that Republican candidate Demetria Carter will defeat Democrat Alan Sherouse are even better than the other Republicans running countywide because Carter isn’t running against an incumbent. Rogers, because he is the Sheriff, and Cashion, because she has been an active Guilford County commissioner for over 17 years, have great name recognition across the county. The same can’t be said for Sherouse.
Nationally all indications are that it’s going to be a Republican year, but locally we’ll just have to wait and see.