Never think that your single vote doesn’t matter.

In the Republican primary for North Carolina Senate District 26 this week, longtime Senate leader Phil Berger trails Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page by just two votes – an almost unbelievably narrow margin that could ultimately be decided by a handful of ballots once the official canvass and any recount are completed.

Unofficial election-night totals show Page with 13,077 votes and Berger with 13,075 votes.

The margin is so small that the outcome isn’t final. Provisional ballots and any remaining absentee ballots still have to be counted – and because the difference is far less than 1 percent, the race will no doubt end up in a recount.

Still, even before the canvass is completed, the razor-thin margin has already produced one of the most surprising political developments in North Carolina in years.

For more than a decade, Berger has been one of the most powerful political figures in the state. Since 2011 he has served as president pro tempore of the North Carolina Senate – effectively the most influential member of the General Assembly.

During that time Berger has played a central role in nearly every major policy decision in Raleigh, from tax reforms and education policy to judicial changes and state budgets.

Because of that influence, the idea that Berger might lose a primary election – and lose it by two votes – would have seemed almost unimaginable just a few years ago.

Yet the election-night numbers told the story.

Page, the longtime sheriff of Rockingham County, ran a campaign that tapped into a growing frustration among some conservative voters with long-time political leaders in Raleigh. Page’s campaign portrayed him as a law-and-order candidate rooted in his community rather than part of the political establishment.

One issue that hung over the race and became a major talking point among conservative voters was the debate over legalizing casinos in North Carolina.

During the 2023 legislative session, discussions emerged in Raleigh about allowing large resort-style casinos in the state. Supporters argued that casinos could bring tourism and economic development to struggling areas of North Carolina.

Critics, however, viewed the proposal as an expansion of gambling that conflicted with conservative values.  They also feared it would bring more crime to the area.

The debate quickly became one of the most controversial issues among Republican voters.

Although the proposal ultimately stalled and never became law, the political fallout from the discussion lingered and became part of the narrative surrounding Berger’s primary challenge.

Former Guilford County Sheriff BJ Barnes, who endorsed Berger in the race, said the casino issue damaged Berger politically.

“That casino debate really hurt him,” Barnes said when discussing the race.

Barnes, who served as sheriff of Guilford County for over two decades and remains a well-known figure in Republican politics in the region, prominently backed Berger during the campaign.

That endorsement strained Barnes’ relationship with Page, who had known Barnes for many years through law enforcement circles.

Barnes said that after he announced his support for Berger, Page stopped communicating with him.

“He hasn’t spoken to me since,” Barnes told the Rhino Times on election night.

Barnes said his endorsement was based largely on Berger’s long experience and leadership in Raleigh.

“I’ve known Phil Berger for years,” Barnes said. “He’s been a strong leader for the state.”

Barnes also noted that the political climate around the race had clearly changed compared to earlier years.

“This one surprised a lot of people,” Barnes said.

Indeed, Berger’s near defeat reflects a broader trend seen in many parts of the country – voters becoming more willing to challenge long-time incumbents, even powerful ones.

In December, President Donald Trump endorsed Berger in the race.  He gave Berger his “Complete and Total Endorsement.”  Berger touted that relationship and endorsement and embraced his strong association with Trump throughout the campaign.  There was a time when that endorsement would have virtually guaranteed a win in a North Carolina Republican Primary race – especially for such a long serving and well-known politician like Berger, however, Trump’s approval rating has fallen even among Republicans – and even some of the strongest members of his base – due to things like the ICE killings in Minnesota, the Epstein file scandal and starting an unpopular war with Iran just days before the primary.

Even without the president’s endorsement, for years Berger was viewed as nearly unbeatable in his home district. His leadership position in the Senate gave him strong fundraising advantages and deep connections throughout Republican political networks.

But Page’s campaign successfully tapped into a grassroots mood among some conservative voters who wanted to see new leadership.

Another move by Berger that angered some residents in and around Summerfield was Berger’s support of developer David Couch’s successful effort to de-annex about 1,000 acres of property from the town so that he could develop it with greater density than many town residents wanted to see.

The district itself also played a role in the dynamics of the race. Senate District 26 includes Rockingham County and a small portion of Guilford County, and Rockingham County has long been Page’s political base.  Berger came out well ahead of Page in the votes cast in Guilford County.

Few observers expected the race to end up this close.

With more than 26,000 votes cast in the primary, the difference between the candidates currently amounts to just those two ballots.

In practical terms, that means a single household – or even one voter who decided to skip that race on the ballot – could have changed the outcome.

Election officials will complete the official canvass in the coming days, and additional ballots could still slightly shift the totals.

If the margin remains extremely small, a recount will take place.

Until that process is finished, the contest between Page and Berger remains unresolved.

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