North Carolina has had over 200,000 people recover from COVID-19.
On Mondays, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) releases its report on how many people in the state have tested positive for COVID-19 and recovered.
The NCDHHS reports the number of new cases, the number of hospitalizations, the number tested, the percent who tested positive and the number of deaths on a daily basis. But the number of people who tested positive and recovered is only reported once a week.
On Monday, Oct. 12, the NCDHHS reported that in North Carolina, since March, 206,471 of the 225,959 people who tested positive with the molecular (PCR) test have recovered from COVID-19.
It was big news when the state went over 200,000 for people who tested positive, but for some reason it’s not considered newsworthy for the state to break the 200,000 mark in recoveries from COVID-19.
According to the NCDHHS figures, there are 15,227 people in the state who tested positive and still have active cases of COVID-19. So that is 15,227 active cases of COVID-19 in a state with 10.5 million people.
The number of active cases is derived from the NCDHHS figures of 225,959 positive tests since March, 206,471 recovered and 3,773 deaths attributed to COVID-19.
On Sept. 28, the last time the Rhino Times reported on these weekly numbers, the number of active cases in the state was 15,728. So the number of active cases has dropped by 501 cases in the past two weeks and continues on a downward trend, although the number of active cases on Sept. 21 was 14,712.
Two months ago, on August 10, the number of active cases in the state was 17,703.
The 15,277 active cases of COVID-19 in the state means that of the 10.5 million North Carolinians 0.145 percent have confirmed active cases of COVID-19.
So what I hear you saying is that it’s basically as bad as it was since two months ago.
Since August 10, there has been a 10% decrease in the number of active cases. Since September 21, there has been a 7% increase.
Let’s look at some more data. Since September 21, there has been a 25% increase in the number of people in the hospital.
You are not a data scientist and you are a dangerous source of misinformation for the community. Stop pretending and bring in someone that actually is an epidemiologist or works in bioinformatics.
Misinformation? Which of the figures reported in the article are in error?
IT is meant to mislead and suggest that no one is really getting this disease. It also says “On Monday, Oct. 12, the NCDHHS reported that in North Carolina, since March, 206,471 of the 225,959 people who tested positive with the molecular (PCR) test have recovered from COVID-19.”
That report from NCDHHS is an approximation. It does not say 206,471 HAVE recovered, it says the NCDHHS presumes that many have recovered.
The point is that John Hammer is not a biostatistician and writes this exact same article weekly to try to imply that COVID-19 is not dangerous. He presents a couple numbers to try to sound like he knows what he is saying but misinforms through gross omission.
The article states 225,959 have tested positive for the disease in North Carolina. That’s hardly no one. It also states 3773 deaths. I’m not a virologist or statistician either but common sense tells me if you contract this disease the possible scenarios are you are currently fighting it, you have recovered, or it has killed you. For the life of me I can’t conceive any other possibilities.
Since MW and John Hammer seem to fall on opposite ends of the political spectrum, I’m going to discount either spin and figure that as is often the case the truth lies in the middle and am willing to accept the state figures as fact and make my own conclusions
“North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) estimates a median time to recovery of
14 days from the date of specimen collection for non-fatal COVID-19 cases who were not hospitalized, or if
hospitalization status is unknown. The estimated median recovery time is 28 days from the date of specimen
collection for hospitalized non-fatal COVID-19 cases. Estimates are used since patient-specific data on the
actual time to resolution of all symptoms are not available for all COVID-19 cases in North Carolina.”
If my understanding is correct, this really means that the presumed recovery number is just a weighted average of all tests minus the number of positive tests 14 or 28 days previously (depending on if a person was hospitalized and excluding deaths). This model does not account for the variability between individual cases.
John Hammer and the NCDHHS have no idea how many active cases there currently are.
Please explain why stating facts is dangerous. Your response is nothing short of hysterical, mw — and I mean hysterical like panic, not hysterical like funny.
I’m in hysterics when I state facts, but Johnny boy is cool, calm, and collected? You must be projecting your own feelings into my typed words which do not convey feelings of panic in any way.
Oh, MW, you should stick with reading the Greensboro News & Record. You obviously don’t appreciate simple facts as posted and verified by DHHS and the CDC. I suggest you, MW, stop pretending to be anything other than a fear mongerer!
Sherry, I’m just asking for accuracy. I’m not fearful of this crisis. I’m getting along just fine. Thanks for your concern.
You ask: What is an error? Saying new cases are down to 35,000 so covid is down. Not also stating that it was 55,000 the day before and now can be up to 65,000 is a big part of the story. As long as we are receiving 40,000 (and now more) new cases a day the pandemic will continue for months. And NC one of the states with the distinction of increasing cases. There are also multiple cases of people having covid-19 more than once. Covid-19 is not the flu — it attacks the whole body and can have brain damage too — so best for people to avoid covid parties. I sincerely wish that everyone would wear a mask, social distancing, and stay home. Take care you all….. stay home…. wear a mask and protect yourself and your family and friends.