Early voting in Guilford County is off to a much faster start than it was four years ago, but perhaps the most striking change isn’t how many people are voting – It’s who’s showing up.
Registered Democrats are accounting for a substantially larger share of early voters than they did during the 2022 midterm election, while the Republican share has dropped dramatically.
According to data compiled from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 44,003 ballots had been recorded in Guilford County by the sixth day of early voting, compared with 30,724 at the same point in 2022. That’s an increase of 43.2 percent, or 13,279 additional ballots.
But the party breakdown reveals an even more dramatic difference.
In 2022, registered Democrats accounted for 46 percent of early ballots cast at this point in the election. This year, that figure is 51.6 percent.
Meanwhile, registered Republicans accounted for 29.2 percent of early ballots four years ago. This year, the Republican share has fallen to just 18.1 percent.
Unaffiliated voters have also increased their share, from 24.6 percent in 2022 to 30.1 percent this year.
The difference doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats are headed for big victories on Election Day, Nov. 3: Early voting figures show the party registration of people casting ballots, not which candidates they’re supporting, and a voter who casts a ballot early this year might simply be someone who waited until Election Day four years ago.
Still, the figures show that the early electorate looks considerably different from the one that came out in 2022.
Guilford County Elections Director Charlie Collicutt said in an interview with the Rhino Times that Democratic participation is running ahead of the party’s share of registered voters, while Republican participation is lagging behind its registration share.
“Democrats are overrepresenting their ratio and the Republicans are underrepresenting their ratio,” Collicutt said.
Democrats make up about 38.6 percent of Guilford County’s registered voters but account for 51.6 percent of ballots in the early-voting comparison. Republicans make up roughly 22.4 percent of registered voters but have cast only 18.1 percent of the early ballots.
Unaffiliated voters account for 38.4 percent of registered voters and 30.1 percent of early ballots.
Collicutt notes that the State Board of Elections maintains detailed statistics and charts that provide additional insight into the party breakdown.
The increased participation isn’t confined to Guilford County.
Wake County has recorded a 57.5 percent increase in ballots compared with the same point in 2022, while Mecklenburg County is up 54.3 percent. Forsyth County has seen an increase of 38 percent.
In each of those counties, registered Republicans also account for a smaller share of early ballots than they did four years ago.
Whether those differences will translate into changes in election results remains an open question: The figures don’t establish how many voters are participating in a midterm election for the first time or returning after sitting out 2022.
Collicutt said that the voting process itself has been going smoothly in Guilford County despite the increased activity.
“Everything has had a good flow,” he said. “Our traditional sites we’ve used for a long time are having a lot of voters, and at times there can be lines – sometimes whittled down to nothing, but sometimes some lines.”
He said that some of the county’s newer and smaller early voting locations have little or no waiting.
“Some of our newer sites and smaller sites, you can walk right on in, and there’s not that many voters at all,” Collicutt said. “They’re voting steadily throughout the day, but at any given time, there’s not really a line buildup.”
Managing the election also involves keeping the correct ballots available at locations throughout the county.
Collicutt said that Guilford County has 84 different ballot variations depending on where voters live, and because voters can cast ballots at any early voting location, election officials sometimes have to move ballots from one location to another.
He said he prefers to be overly cautious to make certain no voting site comes close to running out of ballots.
Although presidential elections ordinarily require far more resources and generate more attention than midterms, Collicutt said the 2026 election feels different.
“Nothing compares to a presidential election,” he said, explaining that the difference between 60 percent turnout and 75 percent turnout creates enormous additional demands for election workers, equipment and resources.
But when asked whether this year’s midterm feels more like a presidential election, he agreed that it did.
“This one’s different,” Collicutt said. “Specifically, to this one, this does have more of a feel of a presidential.”
“I think that our board is doing an excellent job following the laws, and I am following that lead,” he added.
Early voting continues through Saturday, Oct. 31, with Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The ultimate question is whether the dramatic changes in early participation reflect a lasting shift in turnout or simply a change in when Guilford County voters are choosing to cast their ballots.
The dramatic changes in Guilford County’s early-voting numbers are occurring amid a nationwide surge in early participation. An Associated Press analysis released Wednesday, Oct. 21, found substantial increases in states with competitive US Senate races, including Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio. National voting data also shows strong early participation among registered Democrats in several states, although the pattern varies considerably by state. Those figures suggest that Guilford County is part of a broader national increase in voter engagement rather than an isolated local phenomenon.
people cannot patiently wait for vote count with verdict, they NEED predict, wager , bet opportunities because of the dull predictability of their regimented lives ?
They take it from thee, O Master of the chaos confused conundrums.
No surprises here. Just looking at the registration numbers for Greensboro the real news would be if it was leaning the other way. Lots if interest in these mid terms and democrats always tend to vote sooner. Republicans will gain momentum toward election day but other than a county commissioner race or two a republican will never win in Greensboro.
Unfortunately I am afraid you are correct about that. North Carolina has turned blue and it is taking everything we have in us to keep the red that we have. We need to find a way to take North Carolina back. Our problem is we have all of the northerners coming down here and trying to change us into the way it is up north. If they want things here the way they are there, they should have just stayed up there and not bothered to come down south.
Or, move back immediately!
Greensboro is blue but North Carolina is clearly purple given how NC clearly favors Republicans for statewide federal elections.
NC is not blue in any sense. The cities are, but the state as a whole isn’t blue. The issue this period is Trump’s 2nd term as been a trainwreck. I don’t know many republican leaning friends ready to rush out to vote for people that have sold their soul to get Trumps endorsement. It’s not a priority this time. Why would it be? Look at how costs have risen under Trump. Trump raised taxes on Americans by imposing tariffs, and him letting himself get talked into starting a way with Iran has made the cost of gas skyrocket. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out Democrats are going to rack up wins this season.
A lot of the unaffiliated voters are ex-republicans who still vote republican.
From my limited experience, it seems to me that when people first register to vote with a party, they never bother to change it. NC used to be a Dick Russell member of the Solid South. “States rights” since Andrew Jackson.
Make no mistake, the Republicans are going to show up on election day in a very big way. Most Republicans don’t do early voting. We show up at the polls in numbers. That’s what counts.
The bigger question is will unaffiliated votes lean D or R? They are the majority party in NC and have historically leaned R…but has the craziness of the current administration pushed them blue? Will be interesting to see how it turns out.
I 100% believe the majority of independents will not be swayed to vote for republicans this season even if they do 90% of the time. Trump is the best campaigner for Democrats. They don’t need Obama or the Clintons campaigning to get people to the polls. Just letting Trump talk is getting people to the polls. But they’re going to get him to shut up, not to support him. They’re not going to support another war which has raised gas prices, and they’re not going to support tariffs which is simply a tax on Americans.
What’s crazy about the current administration? Are you talking about local administration which is already blue and is crazy. The midterm elections are more about local government I thought
The surge is hardly surprising. The level of dissatisfaction with the current administration coupled with the tendency of Republican voters to vote on election day makes many motivated voters dread the possible lines and delays they may expect November 3. So, they are likely motivated to vote early. Also, Greensboro has multiple convenient and accessible early voting sites that are familiar to many voters from prior elections. This may not be as convenient for voters who work, but it can be a blessing for many retired voters. Some early voters may also be inclined to vote early in order to make the voting experience better for working voters whose only opportunity may be election day.
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Right, Frank. I had expected to vote on election day, since that was required in Britain and what my family always did, but I’m going to take advantage of early voting on my first time voting in America!
The indications are not propitious, but hey, it’s the midterms.
Frank I’m thinking you are giving the early voters too much altruistic credit for voting early to ease the burden on election day. They want to make sure their vote gets in, as democratic leadership has urged for a long time now. I’m going to try to squeeze it in on Wednesday before my local early site closes. If not then election day it is. Lol if they are going to have early voting they should have one site that is open 24 hours for people with firm work schedules.
There are plenty of early voting days. I voted yesterday (Sunday) at 2 pm. If you can’t make it one of these early voting days (including weekends), what’s the chance you can make it on election day? Voting takes some initiative. If people want to vote, they have ample opportunity. I won’t be surprised if republican turn out is extremely low. I mean can you blame them?
Remember when republicans said the democrats are going to take away your guns? Republicans turned out in heavy numbers to oppose. Now the democrats are using the same playbook: republicans are going to make it harder for you to vote. It shouldn’t be surprising that democrats are turning out in large numbers. You threaten to take away something from people, people respond!
I’ve changed my party affiliation from Republican to Independent and agree that most Independents are former Republicans. I am though taking Trump’s advice and pretending he’s the one on the ballot and will be voting for a democratic senator for the first time in my life.