Early voting in Guilford County is off to a much faster start than it was four years ago, but perhaps the most striking change isn’t how many people are voting – It’s who’s showing up.
Registered Democrats are accounting for a substantially larger share of early voters than they did during the 2022 midterm election, while the Republican share has dropped dramatically.
According to data compiled from the North Carolina State Board of Elections, 44,003 ballots had been recorded in Guilford County by the sixth day of early voting, compared with 30,724 at the same point in 2022. That’s an increase of 43.2 percent, or 13,279 additional ballots.
But the party breakdown reveals an even more dramatic difference.
In 2022, registered Democrats accounted for 46 percent of early ballots cast at this point in the election. This year, that figure is 51.6 percent.
Meanwhile, registered Republicans accounted for 29.2 percent of early ballots four years ago. This year, the Republican share has fallen to just 18.1 percent.
Unaffiliated voters have also increased their share, from 24.6 percent in 2022 to 30.1 percent this year.
The difference doesn’t necessarily mean Democrats are headed for big victories on Election Day, Nov. 3: Early voting figures show the party registration of people casting ballots, not which candidates they’re supporting, and a voter who casts a ballot early this year might simply be someone who waited until Election Day four years ago.
Still, the figures show that the early electorate looks considerably different from the one that came out in 2022.
Guilford County Elections Director Charlie Collicutt said in an interview with the Rhino Times that Democratic participation is running ahead of the party’s share of registered voters, while Republican participation is lagging behind its registration share.
“Democrats are overrepresenting their ratio and the Republicans are underrepresenting their ratio,” Collicutt said.
Democrats make up about 38.6 percent of Guilford County’s registered voters but account for 51.6 percent of ballots in the early-voting comparison. Republicans make up roughly 22.4 percent of registered voters but have cast only 18.1 percent of the early ballots.
Unaffiliated voters account for 38.4 percent of registered voters and 30.1 percent of early ballots.
Collicutt notes that the State Board of Elections maintains detailed statistics and charts that provide additional insight into the party breakdown.
The increased participation isn’t confined to Guilford County.
Wake County has recorded a 57.5 percent increase in ballots compared with the same point in 2022, while Mecklenburg County is up 54.3 percent. Forsyth County has seen an increase of 38 percent.
In each of those counties, registered Republicans also account for a smaller share of early ballots than they did four years ago.
Whether those differences will translate into changes in election results remains an open question: The figures don’t establish how many voters are participating in a midterm election for the first time or returning after sitting out 2022.
Collicutt said that the voting process itself has been going smoothly in Guilford County despite the increased activity.
“Everything has had a good flow,” he said. “Our traditional sites we’ve used for a long time are having a lot of voters, and at times there can be lines – sometimes whittled down to nothing, but sometimes some lines.”
He said that some of the county’s newer and smaller early voting locations have little or no waiting.
“Some of our newer sites and smaller sites, you can walk right on in, and there’s not that many voters at all,” Collicutt said. “They’re voting steadily throughout the day, but at any given time, there’s not really a line buildup.”
Managing the election also involves keeping the correct ballots available at locations throughout the county.
Collicutt said that Guilford County has 84 different ballot variations depending on where voters live, and because voters can cast ballots at any early voting location, election officials sometimes have to move ballots from one location to another.
He said he prefers to be overly cautious to make certain no voting site comes close to running out of ballots.
Although presidential elections ordinarily require far more resources and generate more attention than midterms, Collicutt said the 2026 election feels different.
“Nothing compares to a presidential election,” he said, explaining that the difference between 60 percent turnout and 75 percent turnout creates enormous additional demands for election workers, equipment and resources.
But when asked whether this year’s midterm feels more like a presidential election, he agreed that it did.
“This one’s different,” Collicutt said. “Specifically, to this one, this does have more of a feel of a presidential.”
“I think that our board is doing an excellent job following the laws, and I am following that lead,” he added.
Early voting continues through Saturday, Oct. 31, with Election Day on Tuesday, Nov. 3.
The ultimate question is whether the dramatic changes in early participation reflect a lasting shift in turnout or simply a change in when Guilford County voters are choosing to cast their ballots.
The dramatic changes in Guilford County’s early-voting numbers are occurring amid a nationwide surge in early participation. An Associated Press analysis released Wednesday, Oct. 21, found substantial increases in states with competitive US Senate races, including Texas, Kansas, Maine and Ohio. National voting data also shows strong early participation among registered Democrats in several states, although the pattern varies considerably by state. Those figures suggest that Guilford County is part of a broader national increase in voter engagement rather than an isolated local phenomenon.
