There have been many times in the past when people have said, “This election is the most important one of our lifetime” – but this one really is.
The country is at a fork in the road and the paths go in radically different directions depending on how people vote.
It’s fascinating that the most important election in modern history is all, 100 percent, completely and absolutely about a man who isn’t on the ballot. That’s really amazing if you think about it. You can scour any ballot in any precinct across the country up and down and nowhere will you find the name Donald Trump, but, in a way, you could replace every name on every ballot with the name Trump.
The president says, “Vote as if I’m on the ballot.”
Which is exactly what people have been doing and will do: Those who love Trump and love all the things he has been doing will go in and vote for Republican senators across the country, and those who despise him will go in – if they haven’t already – and vote Democratic all the way from senator down to dogcatcher.
Democrats currently have high spirits because, on the eve of the election, Kalshi and Polymarket have the Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate at 74 percent – and both markets say that, barring a miracle, the Democrats will take the House.
Also, the last polling data from the most reliable polls had the Democrats leading in most key Senate races.
But Democrats are still very worried for very good reasons: MAGA voters are always underpolled; Trump has won two elections when most people thought he would lose; there’s a lot of last-minute infighting between the establishment Democrats and the socialist wing of the party – and even a 25 percent chance is a chance.
In baseball, a 25 percent batting average isn’t bad at all and those batters get hits all the time.
Also, there are countless times in history when Democrats have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
By the way, those prediction market odds of taking the Senate are a drastic reversal from what they were the day before Trump was sworn in. In January of 2025, the prediction markets were giving Democrats an 18 percent chance of winning the Senate.
Democrats are also worried that, even if they do win, the winners may not be certified in Republican states and they are even worried that, even if they are certified, they won’t be allowed to take their seats in January.
Republicans, conversely, are worried that races in this election will be decided by fraudulent votes from illegals, dead people, Democratic action committees and others.
And both sides are so worried because the consequences for this country are unimaginably immense.
There’s only one regard in which things will look the same after the election: Whichever side wins will continue to spend the country into financial ruin. America’s debt is over $40 trillion; the deficit this year is $2 trillion and at no point since former President Bill Clinton brought in a healthy surplus has any party shown any political will to do anything other than print money and spend it like crazy.
Which means we will get inflation whether or not the war with Iran ends tomorrow and whether or not all tariffs are removed the day after that.
A small Diet Coke at the Regal Cinema in Friendly Shopping Center is now, amazingly, $9.
There’s one other thing that will remain the same no matter who wins the Senate: There will be massive investigations of the president and his family and all of those around him.
However, as long as the president and those around him have been honest with the American people and they haven’t done anything corrupt, they have nothing to worry about – other than the annoyance of having to spend the time and money to defend themselves and their reputations.
And, to be honest, turnabout is fair play, and the president probably deserves it given the way he went after James Comey for posting a picture of seashells and the way he tried to jail the former Olympian for dipping his hand into the Reflecting Pool rather than just admitting the people he hired to fix the pool screwed it up.
However, everything else will be radically different depending on the outcome. If the Republicans win, it will be an endorsement of Trump and his policies and the actions the administration is taking. If the Democrats win the Senate, Trump will still be Trump but he won’t be able to get done anything he cannot do with an executive order.
Republicans can take solace in the fact that, if the Democrats win on November 3, no law they want to pass will get through because Trump will veto anything they even think about passing.
In the 1980s and ’90s, Democrats and Republicans had battles but they often came together to do things that would help the American people. That doesn’t happen anymore and perhaps it will never happen again.
It is a shame that Republicans and Democrats in the federal government can no longer work together on anything at all, ever, no matter what – but that’s the way it is now, which is why the path that Americans choose this election is likely the most important decision they will ever make.

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It’s true that Clinton was President when the last balanced budget was passed, but he deserves very little credit for it. Congress controls the purse strings and Newt Gingrich had delivered a balanced budget to the White House. “The Republican Revolution” of the 90’s was a tsunami that caused even Billy Bob to declare that “The era of big government is over”.
Newt also tried to enshrine a Balanced Budget Amendment in the Constitution, and the vote failed in the Senate – by one vote. The wildcard was a Democratic Senator from West Virginia and a former member of the Ku Klux Klan, Robert Byrd. Oh, he enjoyed his 15 minutes as the media begged him to disclose how he intended to vote, but he pretended to be undecided – until he voted against it.
If Byrd – or any other Democrat – had voted the other way, we might now have a Balanced Budget Amendment to the Constitution, and we would not be burdening our grandchildren with debt.
Clinton was a lame duck, and essentially a bystander.
Amazing you ignore the that he balanced the budget for most of his second term based on the efforts of his first term. Key is, unlike republicans, he didnt go into prolonged wars attempting regime change as republicans love to try and fail at again and again. In addition he didnt pass unfunded tax cuts again and again and then act surprised that debt went out of control.
Cheers Doodle Noodle
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Amazing you don’t know that the President doesn’t create the budget.
Amazing you don’t know what leadership is…..
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Professor, I agree with your observation about Clinton’s debt management. Over his administration the National Debt went from $4.41 Trillion to $5.73 Trillion. So, although it was going up, it increased at a rate less than 3% per annum, which was considerably lower than the widely shared economic gains over the same time period. Contrast that with the last ten years (5.75 years under Trump and 4.25 years under Obama and Biden) in which the National Debt more than doubled from less than $20 Trillion to more than $40 Trillion with economic gains mostly limited to the richest.
The wars started by Republicans and the tax cuts are a major source of the ballooning debt. Democrats are the problem. Wars and Tax Cut on top of major financial recovery costs are the problems.
Wars ~ 25% of the debt growth
Tax Cuts ~ 30% of debt growth
Increasing Interest Rates pushing interest payments on debt to over $1T
2008 Financial Crisis and Covid Crisis ~ 24%
The rest is from increasing social security and Medicare mandatory spending due to aging population in increased cost of healthcare.
Hope that helps.
As a conservative, Clinton was one of the few Democrats I liked as president.
Congress creates the budget, and, by the way, they don’t have to submit a balanced budget like NC, but presidents like Clinton can keep spending down and stay kinda close to the budget.
Trump spends excessively, and much of it is vanity spending.
Big govt is going to be a lot bigger real soon. Pres. Trump will have his last hurrah in the final couple years. VP Vance carries the bag, too. He has no chance of being President. Rubio would be my choice.
The Republic is precarious, at best.
The best scenario is aways a legislature that is a different party than the President, so it takes both sides to get anything done.
The democrats have no intention of working with Trump.
Because Trump has had zero interest in working with Democrats.
And yet, the next two years will be all about impeachments and inquisitions.
Given the lack of interest within the republican party to hold Trump accountable for blantant disregard for laws, that’s on them. But at least unlike Trump and his false accusations such as the Reflecting Pool Hoax and 86 Trump meme prosecution, there will be actual evidence and applicable rules of law to address in the Democrats investigations.
Cheers
Well said Scott! It amazes me the hatred for Donald J Trump exhibited. He’s a one term President, not even halfway through his term and yet he’s still loathed by many people.
Look at his record, behavior, and results. Not complicated. He deserves all the criticism his thin little skin can’t handle.
Cheers
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It’s called Trump Derangement Syndrome, AB, and – right on cue – the Professor provides a perfect example of it, with a snide personal attack on the President.
Go ahead and keep telling yourself that … FYI, he is very much thin skinned. That is not a snide personal attack. It is a fact. Want examples of how poorly he handles criticism compared to past presidents? Happy to help as needed…
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But you do hate Trump, don’t you?
Agree, Chris, except he has excelled at shutting down illegal border crossings.
True. But the means are not justified by the results given how the basic human rights of Hispanics were blatantly ignored and misinformation was so heavily used to justify those actions…..such as immigrants eating people’s pets, that only illegals were being harassed by ICE, etc…..
If conservatives really cared about American farmers and other industries that rely on migrant labor, they would have supported actual immigration reform versus just ignoring the law and using cruelty as a deterrent.
But sure. We have more legal immigration now for farm workers which is a positive as that means greater protections for those workers. Count that as a win for Trump among his many failed ideas that have hurt our economy, quality of life and foreign standing in world politics.
Cheers.
Thanks for the nice article. I especially liked your observation: “Whichever side wins will continue to spend the country into financial ruin.” While each side blames the other, the National Debt has doubled in the last ten years because both sides seem to believe the same two lies. (1) We can borrow our way out of Insolvency; and (2) We can spend our way into Prosperity.
How about a divorce?
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We tried that once, in 1861. The War For Southern Independence failed. We were held in a union at gunpoint, and we still are.
Democracy was saved by a strong Union.
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You sound like the Chairman of the Central Committee of the USSR, comrade.
You sound like an angry conservative to think a sentence with Democracy, Strong, and Union included in it sounds like a communist.
But you be you.
Cheers
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If democracy had prevailed, we’d be living in the Confederate States of America.
…except we aren’t a democracy and never were.
The US is a Republic which is a form of Democracy…..so yes, we are and always have been a democracy.
one cabal of entrenched aristocrat/bureaucrats prevailed over another using drafted soldiers & stolen materials causing chaos misery murder. the leading SCIONS of the day were EDU in military schools, taught to war . . . not diplomacy, rhetoric, sociology
Spot on for everything. No matter who wins, the corrupt polys give the people free stuff to get and keep their votes. Thus the spend-a-thon will continue and expand, thanks to “free” money from the Federal Reserve. You have any cash now? Spend it to buy things you NEED, not want, like canned and dry food. Or invest it in something that will beat the Inflation Man.
No wonder a diet coke at the movies is $9. Movie theaters make most of their profit at the concession stand. You can smell the popcorn.
Who can restore our Republic? Not Big Brother.
Wasn’t it the most corrupt president in our history who offered $5k per person if his party won the midterms?
You are right. It was a blatant bribe. I think Pres. Trump has lost it. Such behavior is not acceptable.
Great take Scott!
I am so grateful for your balanced and fair approach to your editorials. You are a fine example of a civic minded, common sense American.
$9 & unhealthy – a dark beer would have some nutrition B vitamins
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Now you’re talking, Markl !
“Beer is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy” – Benjamin Franklin. And back then, all beer was ale (top fermented).
I don’t generally comment on articles like this but have to say Scott, this is the best write up I’ve ever read from your pen. Very concise and very enlightening. Nice job.
Thank you very much.
The republicans rolled over for Trump and it cost them dearly. This should be a lesson for all politicians. Voters want you to work for them, not cede power to the person in the white house.
It just goes to show you that arrogance, egotism and narcissism can cost you dearly.