On Friday, Jan. 30, the Guilford County Board of Commissioners held its annual retreat and heard from an economic development expert – who had both advice and warnings for Guilford County as it moves forward and faces serious challenges in the coming years.

The presentation was delivered by Ted Abernathy, managing partner of Economic Leadership LLC, a nationally known consulting firm that works with states, regions and private companies on economic and workforce strategy.

Abernathy, who has decades of experience in economic development and corporate site selection, framed his remarks around how Guilford County is viewed from the outside – by companies, investors and site selectors who rely heavily on data to make their decisions.

His overarching message to Guilford County leaders was to engage in serious scenario planning, align economic development with long-term workforce and housing strategies, and prepare for faster change rather than stability. Communities that plan for where the economy is headed – rather than where it has been – will be best positioned to succeed, he said.

Abernathy stressed that while local officials naturally focus on what’s happening inside the county, most economic decisions are made by people who have never set foot in a boardroom in Greensboro.

Those decision-makers evaluate communities almost entirely through data dashboards that compare places against one another. In that environment, he said, perception and competitiveness are shaped less by intentions and more by measurable outcomes such as workforce availability, the speed of permits, infrastructure readiness, housing affordability and risk.

He began by describing the broader national economic picture as a period of overlapping shocks rather than a normal cycle.

Trade policy changes, shifting federal spending priorities, immigration constraints, technological disruption, election-year uncertainty and changing consumer behavior are all happening at once. While the fundamentals of the US economy remain solid overall,

 Abernathy told the county leaders that the effects vary widely by place, meaning some regions thrive while others struggle even during the same economic moment.

North Carolina, he noted, continues to benefit from strong population growth and job creation, particularly compared to the Midwest and Northeast.

However, much of that growth has come from adding workers rather than by increasing productivity, which helps explain why this state’s per-capita GDP has lagged behind faster-growing peers. The type of jobs being added matters, he told the board, and that distinction becomes increasingly important when communities compete for higher-wage industries.

Turning to Guilford County specifically, Abernathy pointed out that the county’s resident workforce has been essentially flat for a decade. With unemployment already low, future growth will depend less on tapping unused labor and more on attracting new residents.

That, in turn, he added, places livability and housing squarely at the center of economic strategy.

Recent job growth patterns illustrate both opportunity and concern. Construction employment has surged, reflecting optimism and significant investment activity. Manufacturing employment, however, has declined both locally and statewide. This mirrors a national trend in which manufacturing output continues to rise due to automation – even as job counts fall because companies can’t find enough skilled workers.

Manufacturers consistently report that labor availability and skills shortages are the main barriers to expansion, not a lack of demand.

Abernathy emphasized that this reality puts a great deal of pressure on workforce development systems. As Guilford County’s economy has shifted over the past 20 years, the skills required of workers have shifted with it.

Health care and education employment has grown rapidly, while manufacturing and financial services have contracted. Office support roles, he said, have declined sharply, while construction, logistics and technical occupations have expanded.

These changes, Abernathy said, disproportionately affect mid-career workers whose jobs have evolved or disappeared – increasing the importance of retraining and community college capacity.

Consumer behavior also presents risks. While inflation has moderated, it has now settled into a stubborn range between roughly 2.5 and 3 percent. At the same time, households are spending more than they earn, pushing debt levels higher.

Rising insurance costs, particularly when it comes to health care and housing, were identified as warning signs that could strain household budgets and dampen local economic momentum.

Commercial real estate trends further complicate the picture: Office and retail construction has slowed dramatically nationwide, while industrial vacancy rates have begun to rise after several years of intense growth.

Multifamily housing, once a bright spot, is now seeing higher delinquency rates. Abernathy cautioned that speculative construction is likely to remain limited in the near term, underscoring the need for careful planning around sites and infrastructure.

A central theme of his presentation involved place-based competitiveness. Abernathy described economic development as a marathon in which every community is continuously measured against every other one. Success requires constant attention to business climate, infrastructure, workforce, quality of life, innovation capacity and risk.

He noted that companies increasingly focus on regulatory certainty and speed rather than just tax rates. They want shovel-ready sites, available buildings, sufficient power capacity, and clear timelines.

Workforce quality remains critical, but so does whether a community is a place where people want to live, stay and raise families. Crime rates, housing affordability, school quality, health care access, and amenities all factor into site selection decisions, he emphasized.

North Carolina continues to rank highly as a place to do business – but its cost advantages have narrowed. Housing prices across the state have risen more than 60 percent since 2020, he said, well above inflation. Guilford County remains more affordable than some major metros, but Abernathy warned that continued job growth without adequate housing supply will inevitably push prices higher.

Demographic trends add urgency, he noted.  Fertility rates are falling nationwide, school-age populations are projected to decline and immigration is unlikely to offset workforce losses in the near future.

While North Carolina is projected to perform better than many states in retaining working-age adults, counties will increasingly compete with one another for a highly limited labor pool.

That competition, he said,  will be won or lost on quality of life.

Abernathy also urged county leaders to pay close attention to energy.

The rapid expansion of data centers and artificial intelligence has dramatically increased projected electricity demand – far beyond what was anticipated just a few years ago.

Communities without clear energy strategies risk being bypassed by major projects, while regulatory and infrastructure decisions around power will shape economic outcomes for decades.

Technology, particularly AI, will reshape white-collar work more than manufacturing in the near term he told the county leaders. Many professional services jobs will not disappear but will change significantly, requiring different skills and fewer support roles.

 He told the commissioners that planning for that transition now is essential.

Finally, Abernathy pointed to shifting global trade patterns and supply chains. As companies reshore, nearshore, and diversify suppliers, logistics and regional infrastructure will play a larger role in economic competitiveness.

Looking backward, he cautioned, is no longer a reliable guide to what lies ahead.

 

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