You might think that the fact that Guilford County Schools is teaching fewer students each year would mean that the cost of those education operations would be going down.  However, each year, no matter the number of students, school officials claim they need more money and in the new county managers proposed budget the schools would get millions more in fiscal 2026-2027.

One of the most interesting tensions in Guilford County government right now is this fact that, even as student enrollment declines, the amount of money flowing toward Guilford County Schools continues to increase dramatically every year.

In 2010, Guilford County Schools enrollment was about 73,205 students. Current enrollment is now roughly between 67,000 and 68,000 students depending on the measurement source: Guilford County Schools currently describes district enrollment as about 68,000 students, while the most recently completed school year showed enrollment at approximately 67,620 students for 2024-25,

That raises an obvious question for many taxpayers: If there are fewer students, why does the school system keep needing more money?

Guilford County Manager Victor Isler’s proposed fiscal 2026-2027 budget puts that tension front and center. His budget calls for an additional $25 million in school operating support along with another $33.5 million in debt service support connected to school construction bonds and capital improvements.

Combined, school-related increases account for 64 percent of the amount above the county’s revenue-neutral tax rate.

At the same time, the budget acknowledges that Guilford County’s school-age population is currently declining: It states that lower birth rates and broader demographic trends have reduced the number of school-age children in Guilford County.

And many assume that fewer students should naturally mean lower school spending. However, school advocates argue that public education doesn’t work that way.

For one thing, many school costs don’t disappear just because enrollment declines.

Schools still need:

  • Buildings
  • HVAC systems
  • Roofs
  • Teachers
  • Bus drivers
  • Cafeteria workers
  • Security systems
  • Technology
  • Transportation
  • Maintenance
  • Administrative staff

And, in Guilford County’s case, many of those costs are increasing rapidly.  There’s the new hit on gas prices for school buses for instance and the cost increases created by tariffs on imported building materials.

Guilford County finance officials are currently preparing for planned bond issuances of approximately $565 million in fiscal year 2027-2028 and another $565 million in fiscal year 2030-2031 to fund long-term capital improvement plans involving school renovations, repairs, technology and facility modernization.

One factor school advocates point to is that many Guilford County school buildings are old. Some date back decades and require extensive upgrades to heating and cooling systems, plumbing, electrical systems and security infrastructure.

Those kinds of costs don’t usually shrink when enrollment drops.

Another factor is personnel costs. Even though student enrollment is declining, many county leaders and school supporters argue that many school employees remain underpaid compared to surrounding districts or compared to what they could make in private-sector jobs.

The county manager’s proposed budget includes a phased classified employee pay plan intended to improve salaries for bus drivers, cafeteria workers, custodians and other support staff.

The budget also points out that Guilford County currently ranks fifth statewide in principal supplements and third in assistant principal supplements –  but only 23rd in teacher supplements.

County and school officials say that weak teacher supplements make it harder to compete for teachers.

And there’s another major issue at play: charter schools.

North Carolina law requires that traditional public school districts transfer a portion of local funding to charter schools based on enrollment numbers. That means that Guilford County Schools can lose students without necessarily seeing large reductions in many of its fixed operating costs.

For instance, if 20 students leave a high school, the school system will lose funding tied to those students – but still can’t eliminate:

  • Part of a roof
  • Half a bus route
  • One wing of a school
  • A cafeteria
  • A principal
  • Heating and cooling costs

Public school systems remain financially responsible for maintaining large physical infrastructure systems even when enrollment drops.

The county budget now on the table also points to another reality: county leaders believe the current enrollment decline might not last forever.

The proposed budget repeatedly references expected long-term population growth connected to economic development projects involving aviation, advanced manufacturing, health sciences and bioprocess manufacturing. According to estimates in the budget, Guilford County’s population is projected to grow by about 86,000 people over the next 20 years.

The county’s vast economic development growth will eventually bring lots of additional families and students into the community. So county leaders seem to be trying to prepare for both current realities and future growth at the same time.  Chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners Skip Alston constantly points to this as a reason the county has to spend a lot of money not get ready for education needs and other services increases before it’s too late to adequately do so.

However, there are clearly plenty of strapped taxpayers who remain highly skeptical about the pace of school spending growth.

Education already represents one of the largest components of county spending. When school debt service, operating support and other educational spending are combined, education consumes an enormous portion of Guilford County’s overall budget structure – over forty percent most years.

And, unlike one-time spending, much of the new school funding now being discussed by the county commissioners becomes recurring spending:

  • Salary increases
  • Technology replacement programs
  • Safety and security funding
  • Debt payments
  • Capital maintenance

Those keep coming back year after year.

County officials repeatedly use school needs to point to the possibility of “future revenue diversification” through the proposed quarter-cent sales tax referendum. The budget frames that referendum as a way to reduce future reliance on property taxes while helping support long-term education obligations.

 County commissioners appear to have come to the realization that maintaining the current trajectory of education spending entirely through property taxes could eventually become politically difficult and eventually cost them their commissioner jobs.

There’s also a broader philosophical debate happening underneath all of this. Some residents believe that strong public schools are one of the most important long-term investments a community can make – particularly if Guilford County hopes to continue to compete economically with faster-growing metro areas.

  Others are kind of alarmed that, unlike a decade ago, there are long lines almost everywhere and Battleground is packed with cars even at, say, 2 p.m. on a Tuesday. Some residents argue that school spending is growing faster than taxpayers can realistically sustain – especially right now, during a very difficult economy and a period of declining enrollment.

As school debt repayment ratchets up in the coming years, the debate and the tension will magnify and increasingly focus on how much growth the county’s taxpayers are willing to pay and how long the current pace of education costs increases can continue.

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