When Guilford County rolls out its new property tax rate in June, there will be plenty of talk about a “revenue-neutral” rate – the idea that the county would collect roughly the same total tax revenue as before the 2026 revaluation.

But even if the Guilford County Board of Commissioners adopted a perfectly revenue-neutral rate – which it won’t – the people who can least afford it would still get hit the hardest.

And the county’s data shows exactly why.

Chairman of the Guilford County Board of Commissioners Skip Alston has already told the Rhino Times that the county will need additional revenue this year, meaning the tax rate won’t be set at revenue neutral. But even if it were, the math behind the revaluation would still shift the burden dramatically onto lower-income homeowners.

Higher property bills will fall on those who are already struggling the most in the current economy in which inflation is heating up and gas prices are through the roof due to the war in Iran.

The key point for county taxpayers is this: revenue-neutral doesn’t mean impact neutral.

It means redistribution.

According to data gathered from the county and highlighted by Greensboro tax accountant George Hartzman, residential property values rose far faster than commercial properties. The median increase for residential properties came in at 59.7 percent, while commercial properties rose just 22.7 percent.

That alone shifts more of the tax burden onto homeowners.

But the bigger issue is what happened within the residential category itself.

Lower-valued homes saw the largest increases by far.

County figures show that homes in the lowest value brackets jumped anywhere from about 60 percent to more than 86 percent, while higher-priced homes generally rose in the range of roughly 38 percent to 46 percent.

In other words, the less your home was worth according to the 2022 revaluation, the more it likely went up – at least in percentage terms.

That matters because property taxes aren’t based on how much your home went up in isolation. They’re based on how your increase compares to everyone else’s.

If your property value rises more than average, your share of the tax burden goes up – even if the overall tax rate goes down.

And that’s exactly what’s happening in Guilford County.

The overall median residential increase was about 59.7 percent. So homeowners whose properties rose more than that – which includes many lower-priced homes – will pay more under a revenue-neutral rate.

Meanwhile, those whose homes rose less than the average could see little change or even a decrease.

The result of the new revaluation is a shift in who pays.

It shifts from commercial property owners to residential homeowners.

And within residential, it shifts from higher-value homes to lower- and middle-value homes.

That’s not speculation. It’s baked into the numbers.

As Hartzman told the Rhino Times, “They inadvertently set themselves up to take from the poor to give to the rich” – even if the county adopts a revenue-neutral rate.

Real-world examples make the point clearer.

In one case reviewed by the Rhino Times earlier this year, a small house on Boone Street in Greensboro jumped from $49,200 in the 2022 revaluation to $118,000 in 2026 – an increase of nearly 140 percent. No major improvements were made to the property. The increase simply reflects the market.

That kind of jump isn’t unusual among lower-priced homes in the county in the new revaluation.

And that’s where the problem becomes more than just numbers on a spreadsheet.

A homeowner in a modest neighborhood who sees a 70 percent or 80 percent increase in value is likely to face a significantly higher tax bill – even if the county commissioners lower the tax rate.

Meanwhile, a homeowner in a higher-end neighborhood whose property rose only 40 percent may see a smaller increase, or even a decrease, in their tax burden.

The math is pretty straightforward. If the county lowers the tax rate to keep total revenue the same, it’s adjusting for the average increase.

But not everyone experienced the average.

So those above the average pay more. Those below it pay less.

And right now, many lower-income homeowners are above that average.

That’s why Hartzman and others have raised concerns that the revaluation will hit people on fixed incomes particularly hard – retirees, for example, who may already be stretching to cover basic expenses.

A $1,000 or $1,500 annual increase in property taxes might not be devastating for a high-income household. But for someone living on Social Security, it can be the difference between staying afloat and falling behind.

If the Board of Commissioners sets a rate above revenue neutral, as expected, the effect compounds. Instead of just redistributing the burden, the county will be increasing it – with the heaviest impact still falling on those whose property values rose the most.

There’s a whole bunch of new companies coming in and not enough houses for those new workers.

For many Guilford County residents, the revaluation is the first clear signal of just how dramatically the housing market has changed in recent years.

For others, it’s something more immediate: a tax bill that’s about to go up – possibly by a lot – regardless of what the county sets as the tax rate.

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