On Thursday, Nov. 20, the Guilford County Board of Commissioners held a lengthy work session in the Carolyn Coleman conference room in the Old Guilford County Court House, where they were brought up to speed on one of the most critical long-term infrastructure challenges facing Guilford County – as well as the entire central North Carolina region: water.

In recent years, the Piedmont Triad has been riding wave after wave of economic development wins – HondaJet, Boom Supersonic and, most dramatically, the $14 billion Toyota battery plant just over the Randolph County line.

At the same time, smaller but steady growth from new subdivisions, industrial parks and population gains has continued to push water and sewer systems to their limits.

At the Thursday afternoon work session, the commissioners heard a detailed briefing from Gregory Flory, the executive director of the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority.  Consultant Darrin Thomas also jumped in a few times for clarity.

Flory walked the board through a soon-to-be-released regional master plan covering area water and wastewater needs through 2050.

The message delivered to commissioners was complicated in its details but simple in its conclusion: No single town, city or county can handle this challenge alone. For success, the entire region will have to work together.  If everyone isn’t on board, there’s a risk of hitting a wall in the coming decades when more industry and more residents come to Guilford County and the surrounding region.

The presentation, titled “The Roadmap to Sustainable Water and Wastewater Utility Services in Guilford and Randolph Counties,” laid out the scale and urgency of the problem. Flory began with a map showing the broad US 421 corridor – stretching from Greensboro through Randolph County and beyond – which is an area poised for some of the largest long-term growth in the state.

He noted that the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality has already identified billions in needed water and sewer projects in similar multi-county regions around the state, and the Guilford-Randolph footprint is one of the next major areas under review.

One of the early slides in the presentation made the point that the existing water and wastewater capacity, the patchwork of old interlocal agreements and existing infrastructure simply aren’t enough to meet the projected needs or address new regulatory mandates by 2050.

That message was repeated several times in stark terms: According to the presenters, regulators at the EPA are introducing new PFAS and Dioxane limits that will require massive new investments in advanced treatment.

In the meantime, smaller utilities in the region are already classified as “distressed” – that is, they are stuck in a cycle of deferred maintenance since they lack the customer base and economies of scale needed to fund upgrades.

To make matters worse, the presenters told commissioners that the state legislature is increasingly fatigued with pouring money into one small water system after another. Instead, Raleigh is pushing for more regional cooperation – something that was highlighted in recent legislation that directed state officials to study regional water and wastewater needs at a much larger and broader scale than ever before.

The Guilford County commissioners were reminded that the county doesn’t directly operate a water system; instead, the county has long depended on municipal systems and interlocal agreements that date back decades.

Several of those agreements were recounted in the presentation with dates starting in 1965, when Greensboro and Guilford County entered into an agreement covering water use and water systems.  Through the years the county entered into other partnerships including those with High Point, Jamestown, Gibsonville and Archdale.

Many of the agreements were later revised or terminated over the last two decades and the presenters noted that Guilford County would need to revisit those agreements as broader regional planning moves forward.

A large portion of the briefing focused on the Piedmont Triad Regional Water Authority, which was established in 1986 and has been operating the Randleman Lake system. The Regional Water Authority currently has a water treatment capacity of just under 15 million gallons per day, with expansion currently in progress that’s expected to raise that to 26.7 million gallons per day.

A contract for that expansion was signed in June 2024, and cost estimates for the capacity increase are already around $100 million. The bigger cost – by far – is advanced treatment. Reverse-osmosis systems to meet coming PFAS and Dioxane standards are expected to run between $150 million and $200 million. Those investments, Flory said, will have to be paid for by the communities that receive water.

The Water Authority’s role, however, is expanding: A strategic plan adopted in 2024 envisions the authority not just as a water provider but also as a regional authority coordinating both water and wastewater for Guilford, Randolph and potentially other nearby communities. That shift is driven entirely by necessity. As was explained at the meeting, regional cooperation produces enormous financial advantages when building expensive treatment systems, expanding reservoirs and installing regional pipelines.

Those savings may be the only way smaller towns can afford to meet modern environmental requirements without blowing up local water bills.

That point was underscored with a slide showing projected monthly residential bills for small communities in 2050 if they try to “go it alone.” The numbers were dramatically higher than the regionalized alternatives. It was a reminder that without shared investment, the smallest utilities would be forced into staggering rate increases.

Commissioners were also shown a timeline of “What’s Next,” including the move from analysis into implementation, the formation of a new steering committee, the development of a revised Water Authority master agreement and a push for state and federal funding to help offset what could otherwise be crushing capital costs.

Flory emphasized several times during the afternoon work session that federal and state help would be essential and that Raleigh and Washington would be far more likely to support a unified regional plan than piecemeal requests from individual towns.

Throughout the presentation, commissioners listened closely, and several raised questions afterward, particularly about funding, representation on a future regional authority and the speed at which the county might have to act.

Commissioner Pat Tillman, for instance, said that in the not-too-distant future, if the region’s water needs aren’t firmly addressed, local leaders may have to say no to the next Toyota-sized mega-project. That scenario – turning away thousands of jobs because the region lacks water and sewer capacity – seemed to be a real concern for those in the room.

While they have years to act, the project size and expense is somewhat overwhelming.

Flory described the growth that’s already coming. Toyota is only in its first phase at the Greensboro-Randolph Megasite. Suppliers and related industries are expected to continue clustering in the region. Randleman Lake’s current allocation system – which divides capacity among existing Water Authority members – was designed decades ago for a distinctly different growth trajectory.

Without expansion, the region will hit its ceiling.

For Guilford County, the suggested path forward includes staying fully engaged with the steering committee, revisiting old interlocal agreements to determine what still works and what needs updating, and considering new options for financial participation. One slide showed a possible governance model with an expanded Piedmont Triad Region Water Authority structure that includes representatives from participating communities, subject matter experts and a new advisory committee to ensure local voices remain central even under a regional umbrella.

Another part of the presentation addressed the political challenge of regionalization.

Local governments always of course want to maintain control of their own utilities, rate structures and planning. Flory acknowledged that instinct but argued that a clear explanation of the benefits – reduced financial burden, guaranteed growth capacity and shared risk – could help overcome that initial hesitance.

To that end, he recommended that each participating local government be shown a detailed financial and engineering analysis comparing the cost of regionalization with the cost of staying independent.

In every example presented, regional cooperation produced lower long-term costs.

The Guilford County commissioners don’t yet know exactly how much money will be required, how membership in an expanded Water Authority will be structured or how quickly decisions must be made. However, one thing was clear from the briefing: Growth is coming to the county and the region whether the region prepares for it or not – and if Guilford County wants to stay competitive then regional water planning will have to move forward soon, and in a unified way.

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