As Guilford County property owners brace for potentially higher tax bills following the latest countywide revaluation, most of the public conversation has been focused on one question: How much of that increased tax base value will local governments actually nab and spend?

However, while that debate has taken center stage, a second, much less discussed story has been unfolding at the same time – the projects on the table that will mean local government spending for decades to come.

Inside both Greensboro and Guilford County government, officials are steadily committing to a series of very large, long-term capital projects that, taken together, represent a financial footprint far larger than any single vote or ordinance suggests.

Individually, each project appears routine: A water treatment upgrade here; a transmission line there; lots of expensive school projects.

Oh, and a big upgrade for county facilities.

Viewed as a whole, the picture changes.

The City of Greensboro – through its water resources system – is in the middle of planning and funding multiple major upgrades tied to drinking water treatment, regulatory compliance and system reliability. Those include advanced treatment improvements at the Mitchell Water Treatment Plant aimed at addressing emerging contaminants, along with additional work at the Lake Townsend Water Treatment Plant and related infrastructure.

In addition, Greensboro is moving forward with new finished-water transmission mains and system connections designed to strengthen the overall network. These aren’t small projects. They’re multi-phase efforts that will unfold over years – with funding coming in stages through ordinances, contracts and financing approvals.

At the county level, the scope is even broader.

The Guilford County Board of Commissioners is overseeing a voter-approved school bond program totaling roughly $2 billion, intended to address aging school facilities across the county. That program alone will be implemented in phases over many years, with bonds issued incrementally and construction schedules stretching a long time into the future.

At the same time, Guilford County leaders have been discussing plans for tearing down the county-owned Truist building and building a new government campus, a project that could involve hundreds of millions more in county borrowing.

 Each project has been presented in public meetings. But they’re typically considered one at a time, often separated by months or even years, and rarely discussed as part of a combined financial picture.

That creates a situation where the magnitude of the projects taken together can me misunderstood.

A single ordinance might authorize a few million dollars for design work or a contract. A later action adds construction funding. Then another amendment increases the total again. Each step is presented accurately and is publicly approved; however, the cumulative scale can be difficult for residents to track without stepping back and connecting the dots.

 The Rhino Times doesn’t like to use the analogy of slowly raising the heat and boiling a frog to death – partly because it’s used so often and partly because it’s scientifically inaccurate (the frog will in fact try to escape) – however when it comes to major projects and taxpayer money the analogy, flawed though it is, seems highly apropos.

These long-term commitments are being made just as property values across Guilford County have increased significantly in the latest revaluation. That revaluation will play a central role in upcoming budget decisions, including whether local governments adopt revenue-neutral tax rates or opt to bring in additional revenue.  There has been a lot of citizen outcry but at the same time, area leaders have a whole lot of new projects to pay for.

Simultaneously, the city’s water system operates as an enterprise fund – meaning many of its capital costs are ultimately reflected not in property taxes but in user rates paid by residents and businesses.

So, in addition to likely paying more in taxes, city water users might see water bills do in future years what their energy bills have done in the past year.

In other words, whether through tax bills or utility rates, the cost of these large-scale projects will eventually reach the public.

None of this necessarily suggests the projects are unnecessary: Many are tied to regulatory requirements, system reliability and long-term planning needs that local officials say can’t be ignored any longer. Water treatment upgrades, in particular, are being driven in part by evolving federal and state standards related to contaminants such as PFAS.

But it’s just hard to see how city and county taxpayers will be able to pay for all this, especially with gas prices sky high and the price of eggs still to high.