According to a new poll out of Elon University, Americans, for the most part, expect to see short-term economic pain due to the new US tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed on Canada, Mexico and China.
The survey, which was conducted in early February – before Trump’s tariffs actually went into effect – also found that Americans, especially Republicans, have some hope for positive long-term outcomes for the economy thanks to the tariffs.
“A substantial majority of Americans anticipate rising costs due to import tariffs,” a summary of the national poll reads. “More than 80 percent of respondents said they believe tariffs will lead to increased prices, with 45 percent expecting significant hikes.”
The impact on small businesses is a major concern, since 50 percent of respondents expect negative consequences, while only 19 percent expect a positive impact.
While 93 percent of Democrats and 79 percent of Independents anticipate that tariffs will lead to more inflation, 19 percent of Republicans expect the trade war to cause significant price increases, while 50 percent of Republicans expect to see “moderate” price increases.
Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and the assistant provost for academic excellence and integrity at the university, summed up the results.
“The impacts of tariffs on financial markets were foreshadowed in our survey of Americans,” he said. “We found signs of apprehension about tariffs among most Americans, even those supportive of President Trump overall. Many leaders are now wondering how long tariffs might last. The answer, in part, will likely be driven by how much patience voters in the Republican coalition have with the tradeoff between the economic effects of tariffs and President Trump’s intended political effects for issues like border security.”
According to the national survey by the university, about two-thirds of Americans said they expect US producers will suffer due to higher costs from imported goods.
Just under 70 percent said US exporters will suffer because of retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries.
Some buy into Trump’s arguments that, in the long term, tariffs will bring more business back to American soil.
In the longer term, with higher tariffs, 48 percent expect manufacturers to move production facilities to the United States – and half of those polled say America will eventually become less reliant on foreign imports.
As prices of foreign-produced goods become more expensive under tariffs, 46 percent believe US producers will benefit because their prices will be more competitive.
There is, of course, a big difference in how members of the two major political parties view the situation.
“There is a sharp partisan divide about those positive outcomes, with 79 percent of Republicans expecting that manufacturers will shift their production to the United States, while only 28 percent of Democrats and 22 percent of Independents expect that to happen,” a summary of the poll result’s state.
A large number of Republicans polled, 80 percent, believe the tariffs will make the US less reliant on foreign imports, while just 29 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of Independents think that’s a likely outcome.
As for views on job creation, 76 percent of Republicans expect the higher tariffs will lead to more jobs in the U.S. while 22 percent of Democrats and 31 percent of Independents expect the tariffs will result in more US jobs.
All Elon University polls are “push polling” with a left wing agenda.
Using broad brush tariffs, as Trump has, increases costs of any manufacturer — global or domestic. The integrated supply chains move products back and forth over borders’ multiple times in a lot of cases, thus
incurring tariffs even when ‘manufactured’ here in US.
Targeted tariffs can save an industry, but they don’t RESTORE an industry to a country. Broad across the board tariffs help no one. Trump is a fool and those that believe in his economic plans are fools to believe the fool telling them lies and made-up stories (like when he lied about a Chinese auto manufacturing firm in Mexico that never existed).
Odd how the global manufacturing company I now work for chooses to communicate directly with the current administration (and past ones) to make the best of every situation. If restructuring what we do where is a part of that, we always find a way to make things better for everyone working here. Everyone stays on board & helps make it work.
Owning stock in all your major competitors and suppliers pays dividends long term. We can either whine about one change or another, or we can capitalize on whatever move Washington, London, Berlin, Paris, Tokyo, or whomever decides to throw at us. Strategy is not just a word, it has to be a fluid way of life. This bump in the road is no more than a pebble to those who stay prepared.
Try telling that to Americam farmers who were setup to get the hurt the hardest before Trump changed his mind yet again.
What an embarrassment.
Unfortunately, Americans aren’t willing to wait for longterm benefits anymore, and I’m concerned that prices not coming down will harm the mid-term and next presidential elections.
It would be significant if the tariffs brought in enough money to allow the feds to reduce income taxes while reducing the debt. That may convince people to be patient for Trump’s tariffs to show how well they’ll work. We need production to return to the US so there are more manufacturing jobs so we aren’t relying so much on service employment. The South and Northeast have been hit hard since NAFTA, and these trade deals could help bring industrial employment back to the States. I’d also like the majority of pharmaceutical and fuel oil manufacturing to be here so we don’t rely on other countries during emergencies.
i think you mean prices going up! Especially food prices as that is one of top imports/exports with Mexico.
A quick reminder that in his first term, the income from tariffs primarily went to farmer subsidies to make up for the devastating losses they suffered from just the tariffs with China. Toss in Mexico and Canada and farmers are really going to be taking on the chin this season. If they plant at all.
So now, the real risk is to GDP. Will the trade war push us and other countries into a recession. That is the real short-term risk.
Trump needs to go take econ 101 again.
——
I wouldn’t complain about food price inflation if I were a Democrat… not after the Biden Administration’s explosion of the money supply and its effect on prices.
Still in denial that Trumps over spending over stimulated the economy and strongly contributed to the inflation Biden and team were able to resolve without pushing us into a recession / depression Trump claimed was going to happen?
But Trump takes direct actions that would have negative impact on farmers and all you can say (whine) about is “what about Biden…”? Typical conservstive hypocrisy.
But you be you.
You’re insane. Really. Just deranged.
There was almost zero inflation during Trump’s first term, and for the year or so after he left office.
Biden – or whoever was really in control of that Administration – delivered the worst inflation in decades. We all know it. We all lived it.
You live in some kind of Alice in Wonderland world of your own, buddy. Are you a schizophrenic?
inflation spike started in April before Biden implemented any fiscal or monetary policy changes. So yup. But funny you think Trump over use of spending (which was higher than Biden’s) had no effect but point again and again to Biden’s stimulus spending which didn’t kick in until I think June.
I guess it was the magnetism of Biden that caused inflation.
Now compare that to Trump this term where he has implemented and reversed and implemented and reversed his fiscal and monetary policies so many times during his first 30 days, I forget which EO is or isn’t in effect anymore. Now he got right down to business destroying the US economy so it’s on him going forward even though he has already tried to blame Biden.
Cobblers.
Deborah, listen to this college educated, multi degree holding fount of knowledge. He knows better then all what he’s talking about. He’s got SHEEPSKINS to prove it. I mean after all, he’s so smart he’s telling a multimillionaire businessman how it’s done. That should tell you SOMETHING.
It’s actually econ 101. The market reaction validates the argument that across the board tariffs are bad for our economy.
But not shocked a conservstove would note a person’s education as an insult.
So let’s add basic economics to your list once you figure out elementary social studies.
Good idea Chris. I need to learn how I managed to pay off mortgages on two houses (the second one 12 years early), pay cash for a brand new truck, assist two of my children, and start a 6 figure stock portfolio by the time I turned 67…and all without a college edumication.
But what do I know.
I’m sorry Patrick. Next time we have coffee you can punch me out.
Alan, Chrissy likes to belittle others. It helps him feel better about himself.
He’s an asshole.
There is no question that a military career is a great source of income for those that aren’t ready for college. Especially if you stay long enough to earn your pension. My son has taken this track in life and has put him financially ahead of his friends that went to college. Doesn’t make him better than his friends in college and it doesn’t make him less than. He is really a decent kid and I am very proud of him just the same as I am very proud of my son who is a construction engineer and helped build the battery factory in Liberty.
Only a petty person such as yourself would make point about education to cover your embarrassment for your openly ignorant comments you spout here on the regular.
Good for you Alan. You be you.
Chris, when it comes to the calibre and integrity of an individual, you are not in the same class as Alan Marshall.
So don’t you dare call him petty after you tried to demean him and put him down, for not being “educated” enough.
You’re a prick.
Thank you for having my back Austin. It speaks highly of your integrity. As my grandfather always told me, an education is what you learn, how you use it in life is what makes the person.
Did you really think that clearing the swamp would be easy, or even attainable?
* You’re welcome, Alan. Chris is such an intellectual giant that he excoriates “conservstove” (sic) people for their ignorance….
He’s so pathetic, he a joke. And he can’t even see it.