Anyone who lives in North Carolina knows very well from the ads on TV and on YouTube, from the three presidential political mailers that show up in their mailbox every day, and from the constant barrage of spam texts supporting either Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump or Democratic nominee Kamala Harris – that both presidential candidates are taking North Carolina and its 16 electoral votes very, very, seriously this year.
In fact, in this extremely strange election year of 2024, North Carolina could easily be the determining factor as to who wins what is, by far and unquestionably, the most consequential election in the history of the United States of America.
During the 2024 campaign for president, both Trump and Harris have frequented North Carolina.
Trump stormed through the state recently, and the campaign just announced that his vice-presidential running mate, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, is coming to Hoke County this week to speak to potential supporters.
The Rhino Times isn’t sure of the last time that a presidential campaign visited the southern North Carolina Hoke County town of Raeford, with its 4,559 residents, but the publication does know that that means the Trump campaign is worried about losing the state’s electoral votes to Harris.
But should the campaign really be worried at all?
It’s true that – thanks to a razor-thin margin of 14,000 votes that went to Obama in 2008 in his nationwide landslide “Hope and Change” campaign victory – North Carolina did fall to the Democrat.
Others point to the fact that the voters of this state like to elect Democratic governors, which is another log that adds fuel to the fire for those who believe the state could go to Harris; and, if that does happen, it would mean that Harris would almost certainly be the next president of the United States.
Another worry of the Trump campaign this year is the Mark Robinson Factor.
While Robinson was leading Democratic NC gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein not all that long ago, now Robinson is persona non grata, and a recent Morning Consult poll had him running behind contender Josh Stein by 22 points.
The fallout from the posts that, according to CNN, Robinson made on various porn sites, has been tremendous.
And while some Republicans still call the reports “fake news,” that set of Republicans clearly does not include Robinson’s top campaign staff (who resigned), Republican governors around the country (who withdrew their funding and endorsements), and Donald Trump (who now refuses to appear with Robinson at campaign events, will not mention Robinson’s name, and, when specifically asked about Robinson and the scandal, said, “I’m not familiar with the state of the race right now.”)
So, some Republicans are reasonably concerned that Robinson could create an “up-ballot effect” that may mean some number of Republicans don’t vote because they aren’t excited about their gubernatorial candidate.
But does any of it matter?
Many Republicans argue that Barack Obama’s 2008 razor-thin victory in the state is the exception that proves the rule – and that North Carolina, in the end, will this year, as it almost always has in modern history, end up being won by Republicans.
This was the subject of discussion on the highly popular “Hacks on Tap” podcast this week.
Political analyst David Axelrod said of the Harris campaign, “North Carolina is the second most rural state in the country and, you know, in this business you have to make judgments as to where you’re going to place your bet – because there are a lot of ‘fool’s gold’ states that seem like they’re in your reach, and you spend a lot of time and effort and money trying to win them. So, you know you have to make flinty-eyed judgments. Now Trump is making several appearances in North Carolina today so you know they understand.”
Nationally known political journalist John Heilemann, on that same podcast, said, “The Trump campaign looks worried about it, and you go to your ‘fool’s gold’ thing. David we both know, since Obama and 2012, Democrats have been chasing North Carolina fool’s gold… but if you look at where the Trump campaign is spending time and you look at where the Harris campaign is spending time, it feels like North Carolina is more of a target for Harris and more of a vulnerability – or a perceived vulnerability –for Trump.”
Former Rhino Times Editor John Hammer wrote recently in his Substack column “Hammer Down,” that there’s absolutely nothing for the Trump campaign to worry about when it comes to this state.
Hammer, in a piece called “North Carolina Doesn’t Swing,” made several interesting points.
“Here’s a little-known secret,” Hammer wrote. “North Carolina is not a swing state. If you look at the mainstream media, North Carolina is always listed as a swing state in presidential races. Vice President Kamala Harris can’t seem to stay away, hoping frequent visits will win the voters of the state over.”
He also noted that Trump and Vance always “appear to be camping out somewhere between Murphy and Manteo.”
But Hammer added this: “The truth is that North Carolina has been reliably Republican for over half a century. In the past 52 years, the state has voted Democrat twice – in 1976 for Jimmy Carter, from the neighboring state of Georgia, and in 2008, for Barack Obama, our first black president.”
Hammer also noted that Obama didn’t win the state four years later in 2012 and that even the very popular Bill Clinton never won the state. He also noted that Hillary Clinton didn’t win North Carolina in 2016 and Joe Biden didn’t win the state in 2020.
“Every four years the pundits say that the population in the state is changing and it can’t be considered a red state, and every year they are wrong,” Hammer wrote.
He added, “The people who understand North Carolina politics know that the state that elected Jesse Helms to the Senate five times is not likely to vote for a radical leftwing progressive for president.”
Trump supporters hope Hammer and many other pundits making the same arguments are correct – however, right now, Trump and his campaign staff don’t seem to share that confidence, which means that, over the next two weeks, Trump will continue his focus on the state.
So the polls have been wrong… Even those that show Harris leading…Kamala drew a packed house to the Greensboro Coliseum (capacity for speech 17,000) and Trump can barely fill part of the Special Events center ( capacity 4000-5000)…Trump throws out rolls of paper towels to Disaster victims and Biden/Cooper show up with thousands of construction workers for Western North Carolina…Comparing Trump with his foul mouth and Harris with her competence I will take Kamala.
“Kamala drew a packed house”
In this city rife with moonbats and metally ill, yeah, they were in one place at one time. But, we never saw photos of the upper levels…
“Biden/Cooper show up with thousands of construction workers”
The former couldn’t even tell you what day it was. And, what ‘thousands’?
It will take billions and billions of dollars (estimates point to ~$50B) to repair the infrastructure alone in the western part of this state and the Feds kicked in a cool $100 mil. Nice. Real nice.
That’s sarcasm, by the way.
“..her competence”
… oh, dear Lord.
Please, please, please take her !
Enjoy living with your decision.
I think you’ve got that backwards!
EXACTLY WHAT HAS KAMALA DONE IN 3.5 YEARS IN OFFICE TO IMPROVE THE LIVES OF AMERICANS?
Three fourths of Harris’ crowd were bused into Greensboro from out of state. Hello!
I take it you didn`t see the CNN town hall or the analysis afterwards. As one person put it, Kamala was in a debate with herself and lost–and this is a network supporting her. competence? She has none.
You don`t have to like Trump, but his record speaks for itself. From 2017-2020, he achieved the following:
Best economy in the history of the nation, with 1.4% inflation, .025 interest rate (rose to 2% during covid). lowest unemployment (3%) with lowest ever for women, youth, Blacks, Latinos, GDP (6%, 11% last 6 mos. 2020. Don`t take my word–source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce
Energy Independence led gas prices to under $2
The Abraham Accords-actual peace in the Middle East, ISIS obliterated, new trade deals with China, India, Europe, USMCA replaced NAFTA (all in favor of US and led to a trade surplus of -3%
Southern border all but closed with the least # of Illegals crossing and almost no Fentanyl
More US hostages brought home (50) than any other president and he met all of them; no ransom paid
No new wars; Putin, Xi, Kim Jong Un kept in check
VA access at public hospitals; Military received raise, better living quarters
Tax cut across the board–ck your pay stubs 2017-`20 to see less taxes removed than at any other time
Protection of high-rise apartment owners from Public Housing. Illegals
Inner-city development zones created better employment, more construction & cleaning up
US manufacturing brought home
Recognized Jerusalem as capital of Israel
Forced NATO members to pay their fair share
During Covid, brought US manufacturing together to ensure every city & state had supplies of masks, gloves, hand sanitizer, transporting supplies overseas (nothing on this scale had been seen since WWII); brought pharmaceutical CEOs together to forego profits and work together on a vaccine-testing began 9 mos. later, banned international flights, ships from entering US territory; travel ban on citizens going overseas, against advice of Democrats; grounded all aircraft, shut down economy, closed schools on advice of Fauci & Birx; had Army set up MASH units in major cities; dispatched 2 Mercy ships to NY and New Orleans; brought economy back in shortest period ever, with increase in employment by 15% in 2020
The only president to achieve more was Reagan in 8 years!
The progressive left has captured the Democratic Party and it is totalitarian at its core. Kamala Harris is their spear point. The far-left progressive agenda includes the following:
– Amnesty for undocumented migrants.
– Reparations for slavery.
– Allowing the government to undermine parental authority in abortion and gender matters involving their children.
– Severe restrictions on firearms.
– Onerous taxation on the affluent and corporations. “Fair share” baloney.
– A government-regulated economy that mandates “green” strategies that all companies would have to obey.
– A “reimagining” of criminal punishment. Prison sentences would be reduced dramatically.
– Imposed equity where the federal government would provide entitlements to selected groups.
– Strict limits on speech. New federal laws would punish expression against so-called “marginalized” people.
– A weaponized Justice Department and IRS. Those agencies could initiate actions designed to punish political opponents. Few citizens could afford the court costs.
There is no question that progressives support all of the above. Dangerous doesn’t even come close. I hope enough North Carolinians realize this and vote accordingly.
That’s what’s at stake on November 5. Do you think most voters realize it?
The only chance for Kamala in NC is that the migration of NY and CA workers to central NC give her just enough lift to get her the state win. I don’t think that will happen as she is no Obama in terms of broad appeal, but we can always hope.
And why did those people flee NY and CA? Because of failing democrat policies. Dems are like a virus. They grow and spread and ruin an area, then flee that area to infect a new population before fleeing and spreading again. Thanks for bringing up that great point Chris.
Great point Don. It reminds me of another species that does the same thing. Greensboro is a prime example. Worse than cockroaches
Mostly due to the low corporate income tax rate has made NC pro-business. Where the jobs go, the people go.
Nice spin. Still failed policies, which includes the high tax rate, are what force people to flee. Similarly, Kamala’s plan to tax businesses will simply drive them back overseas or force them to raise prices. Great points again, Chris.
Those NY and California voters came here to escape radical liberal policies ( plus the crime and high taxes that go with them.) We can only hope they’ve learned their lessons.
Excellent analysis of both sides of the issue, Scott. That’s why it’s too close to call.
One factor not discussed? The female vote. Trump has proven time and time again to be repulsive to the fairer sex. Arnold Palmer’s “manhood” comments didn’t help.
There is a strong organized effort to promote women to vote for Harris as a result, aimed at ladies who won’t admit they will refuse to vote for Trump.
Generally the women in the family do the grocery shopping. Having to shell out a out 50% more to feed your family affects a large percentage of females! Even if your don’t care for Trump’s loud mouth , you’ve gotta recognize what he did for America. Read list above. Of course you will never find much of this list in MSM, which is why you ABSOLUTELY NEED FACTUAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION.
When have the polls ever been right? In 2020, they showed Biden up 6-8 pts–he won by less than 1% with a little help. I`m not saying he stole the election, but 2 populous precincts in AZ were shut down for “technical difficulties” and only 1 voter was allowed to vote elsewhere–the candidate for governor but not her opponent. and she was in charge of the state elections. In 2016, polls showed Hillary up 4-6 % with just over a week to go. only one poll showed Trump winning–LA Times. Their poll had a group of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents they asked the same questions every week for a year. That poll no longer exists.
Trump is now ahead or even with Harris in every swing state and even most of the polls. Add about 3-5% based on the previous cycles and you have a more true picture of Trump`s actual lead. NC has been solidly in Trump`s corner since Biden was taken out, and they were even since late Spring.
There is a difference between people attending a Kamala Harris rally because the goal is to make her look a winner with large number of attendees and a Trump rally where people are there because that’s where they want to be. People who attend on their own volition. Harris is an unworthy candidate. On the one hand, she is an avid supporter of abortion, but on the other hand, she supports expanding the federal child tax credit to an unsustainable amount. Harris states she is not for open borders while at the same time being the Border Czar, allowing the country to be overrun with illegal immigrants. Why would voters be concerned about Trump’s “foul mouth?” Voters should be voting for the candidate who can fix the mess Harris and Biden created. Harris is not in the business of fixing problems, only creating them.
Only a fool would believe that take on events. Oh right…..
Greensboro is over 2/3 democratic leaning….so wasn’t hard for her to fill the seats. Frankly it was too easy, she should press the flesh areas where democrats are the minority and need motivation to get the vote.
Go Blue.
Call me a fool but I am not foolish enough to vote for Kamala Harris. Regardless of the leaning of Greensboro voters, my fervent hope is that NC voters, which include Greensboro, will reject voting for Harris, an unimpressive and unworthy candidate.
Trump won the state by less than 2% it’s a swing state and Guilford county gets blacker every year and Charlotte and Raleigh gets more liberal. Even if she loses by more than 2% Democrats should strap it back on in 28 and try again, VA and GA was reliably Republican until it wasn’t.
Are you saying that if you don’t vote Democrat “You ain’t black”?
Are you saying that the Blackness of voters is responsible for the failures of Guilford County, you know, failing schools, bond debt to pay for failing schools, Sheriff Rogers, Skip Alston promoting higher and higher property taxes? Look at the voting record of the “Black” districts. Not sure that I would be touting any of this from the rooftops.
David Axelrod said NC is the country’s “second most rural state.” What in the world does that mean? I would have guessed Montana, Wyoming, etc. This statement makes no sense.
Axelrod was just saying folks in N. C. are a bunch of hillbillies. Of course you have to consider the source.
Maybe he meant second most rural he has ever been to.
We have the second highest number of people who live in rural areas. Montana has more rural space but very few people live in those rural spaces.
David Axelrod is a political hack. Enough said.
Every time Harris speaks all she talks about is Trump. Is this all she has to offer????? What does she stand for??????
90 days into running for President and still no unstructured press conferance. WHAT THE HELL DOES SHE STAND FOR OTHER THAN
MARXISM? Americans are too smart to vote for Harris. No “pig in a poke” for this country or I hope not.
Guess you don’t listen to her rally speeches much. It’s ok, I can stomach much listening to Trump either. Sure they both speak about their opponent but kamala talks a lot about her plan for making a stronger economy for the middle class, representing all Americans and protecting women’s medical rights.
The issue is not that kamala wins the state, but how badly Trump will lose it. Trump is a terrible candidate, has lost everything since a thin margin win against Hillary (still lost popular vote), lost house and senate in 2018, lost election in 2020, and prevented the so called red wave in 2022. And somehow doing the same thing (his rhetoric and fear mongering) will win in 2024? Isn’t that the definition of insanity? Doesn’t matter if she wins NC or not, she’s going to win the popular vote and most likely the Electoral College, not because she is good enough to win, but because Trump will surely lose (again). GOP senate would have been better off allowing the second impeachment…
We will see, won’t we?