You might do a double take, when, after the Guilford County Tax Department finishes its revaluation of all property in the county, it sends you the new amount.

Because it’s very likely to be a whole lot more than you expect. In fact, the value of your home is likely to increase by much more than the 32 percent increase publicized earlier this month.

The 32 percent increase was a dramatic underestimate based on a mathematical miscalculation. The actual amount of the average increase is 47 percent.

Which, if commissioners don’t substantially lower the tax rate next year, will mean that your tax bill for 2026 will be a lot higher than you were expecting.  So, if you’re financially strapped, you better start saving for that expense now.

Things could change by January 1, 2026, when the final property values will be established by the Tax Department; however, the county tax director said at a recent commissioner’s retreat that he was not anticipating any dramatic shifts in the coming months.

Currently, for the average home or building in Guilford County, the assessed value now on the tax books – assessed in 2022 – captures only 68 percent of the actual current value – that is, what it would sell for if put on the market.

A quick look at that 68 percent ratio caused some in county government, and the Rhino Times as well, to conclude that would mean a 32 percent increase in people’s property values – and thus a 32 percent tax increase in their tax bills.  That’s because Chairman of the Board of Commissioners Skip Alston told the Rhino Times two weeks ago that he had no intention of lowering the county’s tax rate to adjust for the new property values.

Upon hearing the new 47 percent average property value increase this week, Alston was less committal.  He said that the numbers could change between now and the end of the year; he pointed out that other commissioners may not go along with him; and he said the board will have to see where the county stands financially next year when the board puts a budget together.

 Alston said two weeks ago that Guilford County has too many important county initiatives and school projects to fund right now and the county needs that extra revenue that the new housing prices will generate.

And extra revenue there will be – due to the dramatically higher valued tax base.

The 32 percent increase projection was due to a mathematical error. The mistake was caught by Rhino Times reader Al Hare who pointed out that, if the current assessed home value is (on average) 68 percent of the true market value, then the average increase in a home’s value will actually be 47 percent when the new valuations come out on January 1, 2026 – assuming things don’t change by the end of the year.

That means that, if the Guilford County Board of Commissioners does not lower the tax rate, then the average property tax bills in 2026 will be 47 percent higher than the bill that property owners are now paying each year.

Now, this is an average, so not everyone will see their home or building appreciating that much. Some who, for instance, live in a neighborhood that has been going downhill over the last four years, may see their property value decrease.

However, most average property taxpayers will see big increases in assessed values and they are likely to get slammed if the tax rate is not reduced in a big way.

If you take a house with a currently assessed value of $200,000 that is listed at 68 percent of actual market value, the newly assessed value for 2026 would be  $294,118, which would represent a 47 percent increase in value from assessed value to sale price.

Guilford County tax officials stress that this is just the average and they also, like Alston, point out that conditions could shift before the end of the year.  Housing and property prices could go lower or they could go higher.

“That does not necessarily mean the 2026 value will be $294,118 – we have many months left before values are finalized,” one county tax official cautioned.

But if things do not change, the average person paying $1,460 per year on a home will see a new tax bill of $2,147 in 2026 if the tax rate remains unchanged.

One other consideration is that some sectors of Guilford County property, as a whole, have gone up in value more than other sectors.  The housing sector, for instance, is one of those that has appreciated more than others.

 So, on average, the new housing values are likely to come in even higher than that 47 percent.

Therefore, to guesstimate the value the county will put on your house in 2026 a good ballpark figure would be to lookup the current assessed value (established in 2022), take half of that price, and add that half to the current assessed value.

The 2026 county revaluation is taking place a year earlier than scheduled.  State law required the county to conduct a new revaluation a year before planned because, after the 2022 revaluation, housing prices in Guilford County continued to rise, and when – nearly a year after that revaluation – the state looked at actual sales prices, those prices were coming in slightly below 85 percent of assessed value.

That meant Guilford County was forced to conduct a new revaluation for 2026 rather than in 2027. About two dozen other counties around the state were also forced to hold an early revaluation.

Guilford County Tax Director Ben Chavis said that, when the 2022 property prices were assigned across Guilford County, they were in line with actual market values; however, he added, in the months that followed assigning the values, housing prices continued to rise, and, when the state did its calculations about a year later, Guilford County’s values came in just a hair under that 85 percent mark.

There is some good news regarding the new numbers.

One good thing is that average home and property owners have seen the value of their houses shoot up by about 50 percent in the last few years.

The other good news is that, while the Board of Commissioners was not intending to adjust the property rate lower in 2026, they will almost certainly have to rethink that in a major way now that it seems likely houses will be valued on average about 50 percent higher than current values.

 Republican Commissioners Pat Tilman and Alan Perdue have told the Rhino Times that they believe county residents are already overtaxed, but they are only two votes on a nine-member board with seven Democrats: Alston and six others who almost always vote along with Alston.

However, an average 50 percent property tax increase is almost unimaginable at a time when the price of everything else is already high – especially after county residents saw a giant property tax increase in 2022 caused by that revaluation.

The public outcry would be so large that Alston would need to rethink his position on leaving the tax rate the same – or some of the other Democrats on the board may be forced to do the unthinkable: break away from Alston and finally cast a vote that’s not in line with his.  Historically, Commissioner Kay Cashion has done that from time to time over the years, however, the relatively new Democratic commissioners seem to agree with Alston on all things.

Even if the board does lower the tax rate somewhat, county voters should still expect to see a huge increase in their property bills next year – though, hopefully, not one as high as 50 percent.

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